【武漢肺炎】袁國勇:傳染率83% 未來數日是阻病毒傳港最後機會

撰文:陳倩婷
出版:更新:

武漢新型冠狀病毒肺炎疫情持續擴散,香港大學微生物學系研究團隊在醫學雜誌《刺針》發表文章,以深圳一個7人家庭有6人確診的群組個案,推算病毒的攻擊率(attack rate)高達83%,且證實能人傳人。
港大微生物學系講座教授袁國勇指,研究顯示新病毒或具高度傳染性,擔憂「沙士」再現,而由於新研究估算病毒潛伏期約3至6日,他認為未來數日或屬最後機會,阻截病毒經已受感染的內地病人帶到香港或澳門。
他又認為應盡快提倡在家以外應戴口罩,以及定期消毒雙手,以免呼籲來得太遲,醫院亦需增購口罩、防護衣、以及所需藥物的存貨應對。
他直指香港目前情況不妙(Our situation is NOT good),未來14日發展是關鍵。「香港、澳門或任何一個國際城市,都很易成為另一個武漢或2003年(爆發沙士)的香港。」

▼香港確診首宗新型冠狀病毒情況▼

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新型冠狀病毒有高度傳染性 患者未必發燒

港大微生物學系的研究團隊最新發表的在《刺針》文章提到,在一個家庭群組個案發現,有83%家庭成員染上新型病毒,當中更有成員未到過武漢或濕街市,與患病家人同住數天後出現病徵。《刺針》另一文章也指,武漢肺炎的死亡率達到15%。

港大感染及傳染病中心總監何栢良,年初一(25日)凌晨在社交網站引述港大微生物學系講座教授袁國勇的訊息。袁國勇提到新研究或顯示,2019新型冠狀病毒有高度傳染性,亦有人求診時未必有發燒徵狀,令確診難度增加,他坦言擔心或「沙士」重臨。

按研究分析,新病毒潛伏期約3至6日,袁國勇認為,未來幾日或是最後機會( last window of opportunity),阻截病毒經已染病的內地病人傳入香港。

香港大學微生物學系講座教授袁國勇。(資料圖片/羅君豪攝)

倡在家外全民戴口罩 延長學校農曆年假​

袁國勇續指,人傳人有可能在醫院或在有旅遊史的家庭之間出現,他認為應盡快建議市民踏出家門,便應戴口罩(universal masking outside home),並定時消毒雙手,亦應延長農曆年假至情況穩定,以免內地生將病毒帶返校園;醫院方面則應增購測試試劑、防護裝備的存貨量,相關的治療藥物包括蛋白酶抑制劑、利巴韋林及干擾素等,以及預備隔離病房的空間應付。

袁國勇預料氣溫需回暖至攝氏30度,才可阻止新病毒生存,現時務必盡一切所能減輕或延後疫情。

▼消委會測試29款口罩性價比▼

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何栢良在社交網站引述袁國勇言論英文全文:
"From Professor KY Yuen:

1. the key issue here is a VERY high attack rate in family cluster, 83% in family members who have been in Wuhan; this shows that 2019-nCoV can be a highly infectious virus.

2. HK/Macau or other world cities could easily become another Wuhan or another 2003 Hong Kong.

3. The next few days (incubation period 3 to 6 days in our family cluster) could be the last window of opportunity to stop the infection from spreading by silently infected mainlanders that crossed the border into HK/Macau SAR.

4. patients can be afebrile at the time of presentation, despite having radiological changes of viral pneumonia. They can still be shedding virus as evident by positive RT-PCR in respiratory secretions. This makes the control by case recognition very difficult.

5. person-to-person transmission can occur in hospital and home setting with intercity spread (ie, from Wuhan to HK/Macau).

6. We should advocate “universal masking outside home” and “frequent alcoholic handrub” now before it is TOO LATE. There should be extension of Chinese New Year holiday till the situation is stable to prevent returning mainland students bringing virus into schools or universities.

7. We need to stock up diagnostic test kits, mask and other PPE, quarantine areas, disinfectants, kaletra, ribavirin (low HCV oral dosing) and betaferon.

8. We must do everything now to delay or mitigate the epidemic till the increase of ambient temperature to 30 degree Celsius which hampers the environmental survival of this novel coronavirus.

Our situation is NOT good. Need to see what happens in the next 14 days. 

Warmest regards."